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JTFMax:

As tensions soar across the Middle East, signs are mounting that Israel may be preparing for a military strike on Iran—prompting the United States to swiftly withdraw diplomats from Iraq and authorize the departure of military families across the region.

U.S. and European officials told The New York Times that Israel appears to be positioning itself for an imminent attack, potentially targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The move would mark a dramatic escalation in the years-long shadow war between the two countries and comes as former President Donald Trump’s administration struggles to salvage a faltering diplomatic track with Tehran.

Citing growing threats, the State Department confirmed the voluntary evacuation of U.S. diplomatic personnel from embassies in Baghdad, Bahrain, and Kuwait. American military families stationed in Bahrain—a vital naval hub—were also given the option to leave.

While no formal Israeli announcement has been made, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been lobbying Washington for months to take decisive action against Iran’s expanding nuclear capabilities. Trump had previously urged restraint, wary of disrupting a potential deal to curtail Iran’s uranium enrichment program. But in recent days, Trump’s tone has changed. “I’m less confident,” he said in a podcast Wednesday, referring to nuclear negotiations with Tehran.

Iran’s response has been predictably forceful. Its defense minister threatened widespread retaliation if attacked, promising strikes on U.S. bases across the region. Intelligence officials in Tehran reportedly confirmed the existence of a rapid-response plan involving hundreds of ballistic missiles should Israel initiate hostilities.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, meanwhile, is expected to censure Iran on Thursday for breaching the 2015 nuclear agreement—an accord Trump abandoned in 2018. With Iran now reportedly possessing enough enriched uranium for up to ten nuclear bombs, Israel’s calculus is shifting.

Oil markets responded swiftly to the growing instability. U.S. crude prices rose to over $68 per barrel, with analysts warning that military conflict could choke off global energy supplies and spark a broader economic shock.

While American and Iranian envoys still plan to meet in Oman for another round of negotiations, the air is thick with doubt—and the threat of war feels uncomfortably close.