Fact Check Response from JustTheFactsMax

Aaron Seibert’s commentary raises serious concerns about the potential impact of new pharmaceutical tariffs on Californians. The facts support much of his warning, but the picture requires some important clarification.

Aaron Seibert Health Article

The Trump administration has indeed floated tariffs on imported medicines and their ingredients under national security authorities. Early proposals have suggested rates starting modestly but climbing as high as 150–250% over time. However, a framework agreement with the European Union currently caps tariffs on EU pharmaceutical imports at 15%. That makes it uncertain whether the worst-case scenario of 200% tariffs would actually apply across the board.

On trade volumes, Seibert’s figure of $128 billion in 2023 U.S. imports from Europe is slightly low. Federal data show the U.S. imported about $203 billion in pharmaceuticals overall that year, with roughly 73%—around $150 billion—coming from Europe. While Europe is a critical partner, it is not the only one. Active pharmaceutical ingredients are also sourced heavily from India and China. So while Europe is central, the claim that “one-third of U.S. medicine ingredients” come from Europe appears to understate the share of finished pharmaceuticals while overstating the share of raw ingredients.

What is beyond dispute is California’s exposure. Medi-Cal already covers more than a third of the state’s population, with spending nearing $188 billion in 2025–26. Pharmacy costs are one of its fastest-growing line items, nearly doubling over the past five years. Just this year, California needed an additional $2.8 billion to plug a Medi-Cal shortfall—$540 million of that tied directly to higher drug costs. Budget analysts expect pharmacy spending to keep climbing, with at least $215 million more projected in 2025–26.

If even a fraction of California’s prescription costs were exposed to higher import prices, the results would be measured not in millions, but in billions. A 30% rise in costs for one-quarter of Medi-Cal’s drug spending, for example, could add $750 million a year. At steeper rates, the impact could soar into multiple billions, worsening an already fragile state budget.

The consequences wouldn’t stop at the pharmacy counter. California’s biotech hubs in San Diego and the Bay Area rely on imported components for research and manufacturing. Disruptions there could slow innovation and threaten jobs across one of the state’s signature industries.

Seibert is right that patients cannot wait a decade for new domestic production lines. The evidence shows that Medi-Cal—and by extension, California taxpayers—are already straining to cover drug costs today. Any new tariffs on medicines would only magnify that burden.

For Californians, the fact is clear: pharmaceuticals are not just another import. They are a lifeline, and treating them like steel or aluminum in trade negotiations carries risks that go far beyond the balance sheet.

— JustTheFactsMax