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"We Have Evidence": German Spy Chief Warns Russia Poised to Test NATO’s Resolve
BND Intelligence Signals Chilling New Phase in Putin’s Westward Ambitions

BERLIN — In an extraordinary warning from the heart of Europe’s intelligence community, Germany’s outgoing Federal Intelligence Service (BND) chief Bruno Kahl has raised the alarm: Russia may be preparing to strike at NATO.

In a stark interview on the “Table. Today” podcast released Monday, Kahl declared that German intelligence is “very certain” and possesses “intelligence evidence” that the war in Ukraine is not the end of Vladimir Putin’s expansionist ambitions, but a prelude. “Ukraine is just a step on the path to the West,” said Kahl, who will soon transition to serve as Germany’s ambassador to the Vatican.

His message was unflinching: there are decision-makers in Moscow who believe NATO’s central doctrine—Article 5, which pledges collective defense—is a bluff. “They would like to test it,” Kahl warned.

Article 5, the backbone of NATO’s deterrence strategy, stipulates that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. It has only been invoked once in history, following the 9/11 attacks in the United States. If Putin believes this foundational promise is hollow, the implications for global security are immense.

Bruno Kahl (62) has headed the German foreign intelligence service, the BND, since 2016. According to media reports, he is set to become ambassador to the Holy See in Rome.

Kahl’s assessment paints a picture of a Kremlin no longer content with Ukraine. He described Russia’s goal as a strategic rollback of NATO’s post-Cold War expansion, attempting to “kick America out of Europe” and restore Moscow’s influence to the pre-1999 era, when NATO had only 16 member states.

Particularly vulnerable are the Baltic nations—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—which joined NATO in 2004 and are home to sizable Russian-speaking minorities. According to Kahl, a Russian incursion might not come in the form of tanks or bombs but through the use of “little green men”—a reference to the unmarked Russian forces who seized Crimea in 2014.

“That is the test of the alliance that will be carried out,” he stated ominously, suggesting Russia may frame such actions as a mission to “protect” Russian minorities, echoing the Kremlin’s justification for the annexation of Crimea.

Kahl remains skeptical about diplomacy. “There is not the slightest indication that Putin has changed his mindset,” he said. Talks held in Istanbul last week, he added, only confirmed that the Russian position demands “Ukraine’s surrender and nothing else.”

As debate intensifies in Washington over NATO’s future—fueled by former President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to withdraw and criticism of Europe’s defense spending—Kahl issued a final, sobering appeal: “Deterrence is the least bloody way to prevent war.”

His warning may go down as one of the last from a career spy chief. But for NATO and the West, it may be the most urgent.